H-1B 2027 forecast: where the data points.
This page presents a statistical projection for H-1B Labor Condition Application (LCA) filings and prevailing wages in fiscal year 2027, derived from historical Department of Labor data spanning FY2010–FY2026. It is not an official government forecast and should not be treated as a guarantee of future outcomes. All figures reflect deterministic trend modeling and carry meaningful uncertainty, as reflected in the wide confidence interval provided. FY2026 data shows a sharp contraction to approximately 210,387 filings — a significant departure from the 560,000–660,000 range that characterized most of the prior decade. Whether this reflects a structural shift, a reporting lag, or a policy-driven slowdown will be a key variable shaping whether FY2027 rebounds toward the long-run trend or consolidates at a lower baseline.
Filings trajectory & FY2027 projection
H-1B LCA filings per fiscal year. FY2027 (marked *) is the projected value from a linear trend over the recent window — not actual data.
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2010 | 342,575 |
| 2011 | 358,857 |
| 2012 | 415,845 |
| 2013 | 442,275 |
| 2014 | 519,504 |
| 2015 | 618,804 |
| 2016 | 647,852 |
| 2017 | 624,650 |
| 2018 | 654,360 |
| 2019 | 664,616 |
| 2020 | 577,334 |
| 2021 | 826,305 |
| 2022 | 626,084 |
| 2023 | 644,607 |
| 2024 | 561,037 |
| 2025 | 596,552 |
| 2026 | 210,387 |
| 2027* | 381,537 |
Based on the historical series and a trailing compound annual growth rate of –15.2%, the model projects approximately 381,537 LCA filings in FY2027, with a low estimate of 167,562 and a high of 595,512. The wide range underscores genuine uncertainty following the anomalous FY2026 drop. If FY2026 represented a one-time disruption — whether from policy changes, reduced offshore IT staffing demand, or administrative delays — a partial mean-reversion toward the mid-300,000s is plausible. However, sustained cap-subject lottery pressure, tightened USCIS adjudication standards, and softer tech hiring cycles could keep volumes compressed toward the lower bound.
Median wage trajectory
Median annualised prevailing wage on certified filings, by fiscal year. FY2027 (*) is projected.
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2010 | $65k |
| 2011 | $66k |
| 2012 | $68k |
| 2013 | $70k |
| 2014 | $71k |
| 2015 | $72k |
| 2016 | $74k |
| 2017 | $78k |
| 2018 | $88k |
| 2019 | $91k |
| 2020 | $97k |
| 2021 | $104k |
| 2022 | $107k |
| 2023 | $110k |
| 2024 | $113k |
| 2025 | $120k |
| 2026 | $130k |
| 2027* | $131k |
Projected median LCA wages are expected to edge up modestly to approximately $131,215 in FY2027, compared to $130,000 in FY2026. This continues a long-running upward trend that has seen median wages rise from $65,000 in FY2010 to over $130,000 by FY2026 — a near-doubling over roughly 15 years. The pace of increase has slowed in recent years, and the FY2027 projection of roughly $1,215 in incremental growth reflects that deceleration. Elevated DOL prevailing wage determinations and competitive labor markets in technology and professional services continue to provide a structural floor under wage levels.
Likely top FY2027 sponsors
The employer landscape for FY2027 is expected to remain dominated by large IT services and consulting firms. Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, and Cognizant have consistently led filing volumes across the historical period and are likely to retain top positions, though their absolute filing counts will track closely with overall market volume. Notably, Cognizant's certified percentage of roughly 53.6% stands out among the top filers, suggesting a higher proportion of its applications result in active placements. Microsoft and Ernst & Young represent the largest technology product and professional services players respectively, and both may see relative share gains if demand for specialized AI, cloud, and financial advisory roles continues to outpace the broader IT staffing segment.
- 200,329filings to date
- 126,291filings to date
- 125,757filings to date
- 79,212filings to date
- 71,022filings to date
- 70,316filings to date
- 68,387filings to date
- 59,909filings to date
Occupations to watch in FY2027
Software Developers will almost certainly remain the single largest occupation in FY2027 by a wide margin, with a cumulative historical filing base of over 2.76 million and a median LCA wage of $102,000. Data Scientists, with a median wage of $102,700 and strong cumulative filings, are positioned to grow their share as enterprise AI adoption accelerates demand for machine learning and analytics talent. Computer Systems Analysts and Computer Programmers — both with median wages below $75,000 — may face relative headwinds if employers shift sponsorship resources toward higher-wage, harder-to-source roles. Computer and Information Systems Managers, carrying a median wage of $150,000, represent a smaller but high-value segment likely to remain stable.
- 2,765,226filings to date
- 792,250filings to date
- 644,075filings to date
- 367,097filings to date
- 340,799filings to date
- 307,209filings to date
- 220,414filings to date
- 163,725filings to date
The bottom line
The FY2027 projection of approximately 381,537 LCA filings and a median wage of $131,215 reflects a partial recovery from FY2026's sharp contraction, but the wide confidence interval signals that the trajectory remains highly uncertain. The structural dominance of IT services sponsors and software-related occupations is expected to persist regardless of overall volume.
How this forecast is made. The projected FY2027 figures are computed deterministically from H1B Report’s historical DOL disclosure data — an ordinary-least-squares linear trend over FY2019–FY2026, with a residual-based range. The written analysis is generated by a language model that is given only those real numbers and the current leaders; it does not invent figures. This is a projection, not official or guaranteed data, and it will be replaced with actuals as the Department of Labor publishes FY2027 releases. Generated June 9, 2026.