H-1B Lottery Odds Calculator
USCIS selected 118,660 of about 339,000 people registered for the FY2026 H-1B cap — 35%. Since the FY2027 cap season the draw is weighted by the wage level of the job offer, so your odds depend on that level and on whether you hold a U.S. master’s degree. This page estimates them from USCIS’s published figures, with every assumption and the math shown. It is an estimate, not advice.
- Selected, FY2026
- 118,660USCIS
- Registered, FY2026
- ≈339,000USCIS (approximate)
- Selection rate
- 35%selected ÷ registered, FY2026
- Current rules
- Weighted90 FR 60864
Estimate your odds
Pick your wage level and degree. Change the number of registrations if you expect a different volume from FY2026’s.
Last published: about 339,000 (FY2026, USCIS). FY2027’s count has not been published. Range 100,000–600,000.
Change the other assumptions
Default 45.1% (FY2026, published).
Default 118,660 (FY2026, published). More than the 85,000 caps.
Estimated chance of selection, without a U.S. master’s:
- Level I15%
- Level II28%
- Level III39%
- Level IV48%
Pick your wage level to see one number.
An estimate under the FY2027+ weighted rules. Selection is not approval. Computed in your browser.
Your odds by wage level
Estimated chance of being selected under the current rules, if as many people register as for FY2026 (about 339,000) and USCIS again selects 118,660.
| Wage level | Entries | No U.S. master’s | U.S. master’s or higher |
|---|---|---|---|
| Level I | 1 | 15% | 28% |
| Level II | 2 | 28% | 48% |
| Level III | 3 | 39% | 62% |
| Level IV | 4 | 48% | 73% |
If the number of registrations changes
| Level | 25% fewer (≈254,000) | 25% more (≈424,000) |
|---|---|---|
| Level I | 21% / 40% | 12% / 21% |
| Level II | 38% / 64% | 22% / 38% |
| Level III | 51% / 78% | 32% / 51% |
| Level IV | 61% / 87% | 40% / 62% |
What the estimate assumes
- People registered: about 339,000published, approximatesource
- People selected: 118,660publishedsource
- Share with a U.S. master’s or higher: 45.1% of FY2026 registrantspublished, FY2026source
- Wage-level mix of the pool: DHS’s estimate from earlier petitions (see the FY2027 check below)DHS estimatesource
- Selections split between the two draws in proportion to the caps (65,000 : 20,000) — USCIS does not publish the splitassumptionsource
Read this as an estimate
- This is an estimate. It uses FY2026’s published registration volume (about 339,000 people) because USCIS has not published FY2027’s. Next cycle’s volume is unknown, and the odds move with it.
- Selection is not approval. A selected registration only allows the employer to file a petition, which USCIS must still approve.
How the H-1B lottery works (FY2027 onward)
USCIS runs a lottery when more people are registered than it needs to fill the 65,000 regular cap and the 20,000 U.S. advanced-degree exemption (INA §214(g)).
One entry set per person
Since FY2025, selection is by unique person, not by registration (89 FR 7456). More employers registering you add nothing; if you are selected, each of them may file.
Your wage level sets your number of entries
Since FY2027, each person enters the draw 1 time at Level I, 2 times at Level II, 3 at Level III and 4 at Level IV — the highest OEWS level the offered wage meets for the job’s occupation and area. With several registrations, the lowest level counts. A wage below Level I (from a non-OEWS wage source) registers as Level I (90 FR 60864, effective 2026-02-27). The prevailing wages employers reported at each level, by occupation and state, are in the Wage-Level Checker.
Two draws: why a U.S. master’s gives two chances
The regular-cap draw comes first and includes everyone. People not picked who hold a U.S. master’s degree or higher go into a second draw for the advanced-degree numbers (84 FR 888). At FY2026 volume that lifts a Level II registrant from about 28% to about 48%.
The math
The formula behind the table, with the numbers plugged in. Full derivation and tests: methodology.
Step 1 — the regular cap
USCIS draws S₁ = 90,740 people from all N ≈ 339,000. Each draw picks one remaining entry at random and removes that person’s other entries. For a pool this size, a person holding w entries is picked with probability
P₁(w) = 1 − e^(−w·t₁), where t₁ solves Σ N_w · (1 − e^(−w·t₁)) = S₁
Here t₁ = 0.1650, so the chance without a U.S. master’s is Level I 15.2% · Level II 28.1% · Level III 39.0% · Level IV 48.3%.
Step 2 — the advanced-degree exemption
About 111,965 U.S.-master’s holders are left unpicked; USCIS draws S₂ = 27,920 of them the same way (t₂ = 0.1592). Over both draws:
P_master’s(w) = 1 − e^(−w·(t₁ + t₂))
Level I 27.7% · Level II 47.7% · Level III 62.2% · Level IV 72.7%.
Before FY2027: the familiar formula
With one entry each (FY2025–FY2026), the same equations reduce exactly to:
p_regular = S₁ ÷ N = 90,740 ÷ 339,000 = 26.8%
p_master’s = p_regular + (1 − p_regular) × S₂ ÷ R = 45.0%, where R = a·N·(1 − p_regular) ≈ 111,965
Why not simply 65,000 ÷ registrations? USCIS selects more people than the caps because not every selection becomes an approved petition. With the caps in the formula the result would be 19.2% and 32.3% — well below the 35% of registered people USCIS actually selected for FY2026.
Checked against DHS’s own estimate
When it finalised the rule, DHS estimated the odds for one pooled draw of 94,900 selections among 320,712 people (90 FR 60948, Table 13). This page’s formula on the same inputs matches DHS’s simulation:
| Level I | Level II | Level III | Level IV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHS simulation | 17.1% | 31.1% | 42.8% | 52.6% |
| This page’s formula | 17.0% | 31.1% | 42.8% | 52.5% |
| DHS simple estimate (overstates high levels) | 15.3% | 30.6% | 45.9% | 61.2% |
Checked against FY2027
USCIS has not published FY2027’s counts, but Proclamation 11069 reports its shares (91 FR 60497): Level I offers made up 17.8% of selections and Levels III–IV about 46.3%. With DHS’s earlier mix, the estimate above implies 16.7% and 25.0% — the first weighted lottery drew more high-wage registrations. Re-weighting the pool to reproduce the published shares (keeping DHS’s Level III : IV ratio) gives, at the same volume: Level I 14.2% / 26.2% · Level II 26.4% / 45.6% · Level III 36.9% / 59.8% · Level IV 45.8% / 70.4%.
The same source puts registrants with at least a U.S. master’s degree at 66.1% for FY2027, up from 45.1%. With that share, the master’s-holder estimates would be Level I 23.5% · Level II 41.5% · Level III 55.2% · Level IV 65.7% — more master’s holders compete for the second draw. Neither change is applied to the table, because both describe a pool whose size USCIS has not published.
Past cycles
Registrations and selections by cap fiscal year, as USCIS publishes them. Before FY2025 one person could hold several registrations, so the per-registration rate is not a per-person chance.
| Cap FY | Eligible registrations | Selected | Per registration | People registered | People selected | Per person | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 269,424 | 124,415 | 46.2% | — | — | — | USCIS |
| FY2022 | 301,447 | 131,924 | 43.8% | — | — | — | USCIS |
| FY2023 | 474,421 | 127,600 | 26.9% | — | — | — | USCIS |
| FY2024 | 758,994 | 188,400 | 24.8% | — | — | — | USCIS |
| FY2025 | 470,342 | 135,137 | 28.7% | ≈442,000 | 127,624 | 28.9% | USCIS · USCIS report (2 selection rounds) |
| FY2026 | 343,981 | 120,141 | 34.9% | ≈339,000 | 118,660 | 35.0% | USCIS · USCIS report |
| FY2027 | The first wage-weighted lottery. USCIS has not published its registration or selection counts (Proclamation 11069 gives only shares: see "Checked against FY2027"). | USCIS | |||||
Limits of this estimate
- This is an estimate. It uses FY2026’s published registration volume (about 339,000 people) because USCIS has not published FY2027’s. Next cycle’s volume is unknown, and the odds move with it.
- The rules changed for FY2027: selection is now weighted by the wage level on the registration (90 FR 60864). Before that, every registered person had the same chance.
- Selection is not approval. A selected registration only allows the employer to file a petition, which USCIS must still approve.
- One entry set per person: since FY2025, more employers registering you add no chances, and under the weighted rules the lowest of their wage levels counts.
- Two inputs are not published for the current pool and are labelled on the page: the wage-level mix of registrants (DHS’s estimate from earlier petitions) and how USCIS splits its selections between the two draws.
- The first weighted lottery drew more high-wage registrations than that mix assumes: 46% of FY2027 selections were at Levels III–IV, against 25% the estimate implies. Re-weighting the pool to match lowers every estimate by 1–2 points at the same volume — small next to the effect of how many people register.
- Past selection rates do not predict future ones.
- Not legal or immigration advice. USCIS is the authority on registration and selection.
Frequently asked questions
- Do I have better H-1B lottery odds with a U.S. master’s degree?
- Yes — a U.S. master’s degree or higher gives two chances. Everyone, master’s holders included, is first entered in the draw for the 65,000 regular-cap numbers; those not picked who hold a U.S. master’s or higher are then entered in a second draw for the 20,000 advanced-degree numbers. At FY2026’s registration volume under the current rules, that raises the estimated chance at wage Level II from about 28% to about 48%.
- How does the wage-weighted H-1B lottery work?
- Since the FY2027 cap season (registration in March 2026), USCIS enters each registered person into the draw 1 time at Level I, 2 times at Level II, 3 times at Level III, 4 times at Level IV — the highest OEWS wage level the offered wage meets for the job’s occupation and area. A person picked on any entry is selected once and their other entries are removed. The rule is 90 FR 60864, effective February 27, 2026. The final rule (90 FR 60864).
- Do several job offers improve my chances?
- No. Since FY2025, selection is by unique person, so extra employers registering you add no entries. Under the weighted rules, if you are registered at different wage levels, the lowest of them counts. If you are selected, every employer that registered you may file a petition.
- What happens if I’m selected?
- Selection only allows the employer to file an H-1B cap petition, within a filing period of at least 90 days that opens on April 1. The petition must match the registration — including evidence for the wage level claimed — and USCIS must still approve it. Selection is not a visa and not an approval. USCIS: H-1B Cap Season.
- How much does H-1B registration cost, and when is it?
- $215 per registration for the FY2027 cap. The FY2027 registration period ran from March 4, 2026 to March 19, 2026, and USCIS notified selected registrants by March 31, 2026. USCIS must announce each new period at least 30 days before it opens. USCIS: H-1B Electronic Registration Process.
- Why does USCIS select more than 85,000 people?
- Not every selection becomes an approved petition, so USCIS selects the number it projects is needed to fill the 65,000 regular cap and the 20,000 advanced-degree exemption. For FY2026 it selected 118,660 people. That is why this calculator uses the number actually selected, not the caps.
- Do past selection rates predict my odds?
- No. The number of people registered changes every year — about 442,000 for FY2025 and about 339,000 for FY2026. The FY2027 rule change, and the additional $100,000 payment USCIS now requires with certain petitions filed since September 21, 2025, may change it further. Read the estimate as a range, not a promise. USCIS alert on the $100,000 payment.
- Does every H-1B job go through the lottery?
- No. Cap-exempt employers — institutions of higher education, their affiliated nonprofits, and nonprofit or government research organizations — file without registering. People already counted against the cap are generally not subject to it again when they extend or change employers. Cap-exempt, explained.
- Is this legal or immigration advice?
- No. It is an estimate from published USCIS figures and a model of the selection rules. For decisions about a specific case, rely on USCIS and consult an immigration attorney.