The H-1B Wage Boom: How Prevailing Salaries Nearly Doubled in 15 Years

If you looked at an H-1B job offer in 2010 and one filed today, the numbers would barely look like the same program. The median certified wage on Labor Condition Applications (LCAs) has roughly doubled in 15 years — from about $65,000 in FY2010 to $130,000 in FY2026. That is far faster than general US wage growth over the same span.

This article walks through what actually moved: the overall trend, the sharper story inside software development, why almost all of the jump is recent, how the DOL wage-level ladder shapes an individual offer, and why the boom now looks like it is cooling rather than accelerating.

The headline: a near-doubling

The single cleanest way to describe the last 15 years of H-1B pay is that it doubled. In FY2010 the median certified wage sat around $65,000. By FY2026 it reached roughly $130,000.

Two things make that striking. First, it outpaces broad national wage growth by a wide margin — this is not just inflation catching up. Second, the "median certified wage" is a floor-oriented number: it reflects what employers formally attest they will pay, anchored to government prevailing-wage determinations. When that floor moves up this much, it tells you something structural changed, not just that a few high-flying offers pulled the average around.

Certified wages span every occupation and every state in the data, so the median blends low-cost regions with expensive coastal metros. Even with that blending, the trajectory points steadily upward.

Software developers tell the same story, sharper

The clearest single-occupation view comes from software developers (SOC 15-1252), the largest H-1B category. Their median offered wage climbed in an almost unbroken line:

That is a roughly $63,000 increase for a single role over the series — and because software developers make up such a large share of filings, this occupation pulls the overall median along with it. It is also why conversations about "H-1B wages" so often turn into conversations about tech pay specifically.

The acceleration is recent — it wasn't always like this

The most important nuance is when the growth happened. It was not a smooth, decade-long escalator.

From 2010 to 2016, software developer medians were nearly flat — hovering in the low $80,000s (roughly $80K–$84K). For six years, the H-1B wage floor barely moved.

The steep climb is a post-2019 phenomenon. Software developer medians went from about $96,000 in 2019 to roughly $143,000 in 2026 — a far steeper slope than the earlier flat stretch. Most of the "doubling" story is really a story about the last several years.

Why the sudden acceleration? A few forces stacked up in the same window:

• A hot technology labor market. Competition for engineers pushed real market pay up quickly, and LCA offered wages had to keep pace with what employers were actually paying.
• Higher prevailing-wage determinations. The DOL's prevailing-wage system sets the legal minimum for each role and level. Regulatory attention to those determinations in recent years put upward pressure on the floor.
• A shift in the mix. More filings for senior, higher-level roles — and fewer at the bottom rungs — lift the median even when any single job's pay is unchanged.

The wage ladder: where a single offer lands

A median hides an enormous internal range, because every H-1B role is filed at one of four DOL wage levels tied to experience and responsibility. For software developers, a recent snapshot of those levels looks like this:

The gap from Level I to Level IV is about $67,000 — a bigger spread than the entire 15-year climb of the overall median. For a worker weighing an offer, the wage level on the filing often matters more than the occupation itself. Two people with the same job title can be nearly $70,000 apart, entirely because of where they sit on this ladder.

This is also the practical reading advice: when you compare a job offer against filed data, find roles at the same level, not just the same title. A Level I number and a Level IV number for "software developer" describe very different jobs.

Why the floor doesn't fall

Wages in some industries whipsaw with the business cycle. H-1B prevailing wages have been unusually sticky on the way up, and there is a structural reason.

The prevailing-wage determination sets a legal minimum for each role and level. An employer can pay above it, but not below. That creates a ratchet: when the government's wage surveys rise, the floor rises with them and does not easily reverse. Layer on genuinely competitive professional labor markets — in software, data science, and information security — and you get a wage floor with real support underneath it.

You can see this ladder effect play out across occupations. The highest-paying H-1B roles cluster where senior technical and specialized work concentrates:

The boom may be cooling

Here is the forward-looking twist. After years of steep gains, the growth appears to be decelerating.

The site's wage forecast projects the FY2027 median at roughly $131,215 — only about $1,215 above FY2026. Compare that to the multi-thousand-dollar annual jumps of the recent past, and the message is clear: the fast climb is flattening.

That does not mean wages are about to fall. The structural floor described above should keep them from sliding. It means the extraordinary post-2019 slope looks like it is reverting toward something gentler — closer to the flat stretch of the early 2010s than the surge that followed. If you are benchmarking an offer for next year, plan around stability, not another double-digit leap.

Takeaway

Three things are worth carrying away:

1. H-1B wages roughly doubled in 15 years, from about $65,000 (FY2010) to $130,000 (FY2026) — with software developers rising even faster, to roughly $143,000.
2. Most of that growth is recent. Wages were nearly flat from 2010 to 2016; the steep climb is a post-2019 story driven by a hot labor market and higher prevailing-wage determinations.
3. The boom is cooling. The FY2027 forecast is barely above FY2026, so expect a floor that holds rather than a floor that keeps sprinting.

For anyone reading a filing, the practical move is the same as always: match the occupation, location, and wage level before you compare a number to your own offer. On this ladder, the level you land on can matter as much as the decade you're filing in.